New data predicts economic recovery from COVID-19 will take years in Northeast Ohio

Posted at 8:24 AM, Jun 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-29 19:09:27-04

CLEVELAND — New data shows about how long it'll take for Northeast Ohio to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The headline—it's going to be a painful few years.

The new report out Monday morning from Team NEO, crunches the latest numbers from Moody's Analytics to see what the data predicts for our regional economy.

"Projections are a little worse than initially thought," said Jacob Duritsky with Team NEO.

When it comes to employment change, the data shows potentially 5% to 6% total declines for 2020, which Duritsky said is about 1% to 1.5% worse than the U.S. is projected right now.

"Unfortunately, like we've seen in the '01 recession since the Great Recession, it's going to take a while to get those jobs back," Duritsky said. "So, it looks like recovery, we're in for about a four to five-year haul until we would see full recovery of those jobs."

As for the all-important Gross Domestic Product, or the total dollar value of all the goods and services Northeast Ohio pumps out, Duritsky said it should regain some of its losses more quickly.

"Five or so percent declines, which essentially mirrors the U.S. in 2020, and starting to get some of that back next year, and fully recovered by 2022," he said. "If there's one glimmer of hope to me, it's that over the past several years, I think the region has really rallied around strategies as a system that are poised to drive us in the right direction going forward."

New reports shows economic recovery from COVID-19 will take years in Northeast Ohio

The report also ponders the potential opportunities that may emerge from the crisis.

One of those, Duritsky said, is upskilling and reskilling talent. Duritsky describes that as using this time to get people trained in Northeast Ohio’s three big industries: health care, manufacturing and IT.

Duritsky said equity is another vital part of Northeast Ohio's rebound. He said they're preparing to release another report in August that takes a deep dive into this topic to provide strategies to be more inclusive as a region.

"Getting more people opportunity to participate is going to be key," he said. "I think we really need to focus on how we get more people participating in meaningful ways in our economy."

Duritsky said our hardest-hit industries right now are automotive-related including supply chains, the aerospace industry, and leisure and hospitality. On the flip side, he said IT is strong.

Team NEO can connect you with employment and training resources. So can your local office for Ohio Means Jobs. To learn more, click here.

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Reopening Ohio
Gov. Mike DeWine and the State of Ohio have established a plan to begin reopening Ohio businesses starting May 1. Below is a timeline of the businesses allowed to reopen.

May 1: Medical care – non-essential surgeries and procedures that do not require an overnight stay will be allowed beginning May 1.
May 4: Manufacturing, distribution and construction businesses that were ordered to cease activities may reopen on May 4, as well as general office environments.
May 12: Retail establishments and facilities will be allowed to reopen on May 12.
May 15: Salons, barbershops, day spas, tanning facilities, massage parlors, tattoo parlors and piercing businesses. Restaurants will be allowed to serve patrons on outdoor patios. More details here.
May 21: Restaurants and bars will be allowed to reopen for dine-in service. Read more here. Campgrounds will be allowed to reopen. Read more here.
May 22: Horse racing will be allowed to resume, with no spectators. Casinos and Racinos are not included in the reopening. Read more here.
May 26: Gyms, fitness centers, regulated pools, recreation centers and studios will be allowed to reopen, with new requirements. Non-contact and limited-contact sports leagues, such as golf, baseball and tennis will be allowed to resume. BMVs across Ohio will reopen, but government officials encourage citizens to utilize the BMVs online services when possible. Read more here.
May 31: Day care centers will be able to reopen in Ohio. Read more about the plan to reopen day cares here. Day camps and summer camps will also be allowed to operate. Details on that here.

While these announced reopenings encompass the majority of the businesses, agencies and events closed and canceled by the state's orders, the governor has not yet made an annoucements on when K-12 schools in the state will reopen, nor when places of public amusement, such as theme parks, gambling businesses, skating rinks, movie theaters, and others will be allowed to reopen. See a full list of indoor and outdoor places that remain closed here.

Click here for more details on the state's "Responsible RestartOhio" plan.