New data predicts economic recovery from COVID-19 will take years in Northeast Ohio

Posted at 8:24 AM, Jun 29, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-29 19:09:27-04

CLEVELAND — New data shows about how long it'll take for Northeast Ohio to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The headline—it's going to be a painful few years.

The new report out Monday morning from Team NEO, crunches the latest numbers from Moody's Analytics to see what the data predicts for our regional economy.

"Projections are a little worse than initially thought," said Jacob Duritsky with Team NEO.

When it comes to employment change, the data shows potentially 5% to 6% total declines for 2020, which Duritsky said is about 1% to 1.5% worse than the U.S. is projected right now.

"Unfortunately, like we've seen in the '01 recession since the Great Recession, it's going to take a while to get those jobs back," Duritsky said. "So, it looks like recovery, we're in for about a four to five-year haul until we would see full recovery of those jobs."

As for the all-important Gross Domestic Product, or the total dollar value of all the goods and services Northeast Ohio pumps out, Duritsky said it should regain some of its losses more quickly.

"Five or so percent declines, which essentially mirrors the U.S. in 2020, and starting to get some of that back next year, and fully recovered by 2022," he said. "If there's one glimmer of hope to me, it's that over the past several years, I think the region has really rallied around strategies as a system that are poised to drive us in the right direction going forward."

New reports shows economic recovery from COVID-19 will take years in Northeast Ohio

The report also ponders the potential opportunities that may emerge from the crisis.

One of those, Duritsky said, is upskilling and reskilling talent. Duritsky describes that as using this time to get people trained in Northeast Ohio’s three big industries: health care, manufacturing and IT.

Duritsky said equity is another vital part of Northeast Ohio's rebound. He said they're preparing to release another report in August that takes a deep dive into this topic to provide strategies to be more inclusive as a region.

"Getting more people opportunity to participate is going to be key," he said. "I think we really need to focus on how we get more people participating in meaningful ways in our economy."

Duritsky said our hardest-hit industries right now are automotive-related including supply chains, the aerospace industry, and leisure and hospitality. On the flip side, he said IT is strong.

Team NEO can connect you with employment and training resources. So can your local office for Ohio Means Jobs. To learn more, click here.