CLEVELAND — In Iowa tonight they will gather in nearly 1,700 precincts across the state’s 99 counties for a colonial throwback known as a caucus. There are no polling places or voting booths and everything takes place in about 90 minutes.
“This is really interactive politics,” said News 5’s Political Analyst Dr. Tom Sutton. “There are some that would suggest that this kind of politics is a little more of a challenge in terms of the time spent, but on the other side, it is a more of a direct connection in the same way that campaign rallies and other kinds of activities are that really get people engaged.”
“It’s a tiny fraction,” Sutton said of the number of people who actually take part in the caucuses. “A good turnout in Iowa for Democrats is somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25% of those that are registered Democrats, so it’s really a small selection of people who will actually be making the decisions.”
No candidate has ever finished lower than third in the state and gone on to win the White House. While we won’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, tonight’s results coupled with next Tuesday’s first in the nation New Hampshire primary should give us a strong indication of who it won’t be.
“If nothing else there will be a winnowing down to five, six, or seven candidates and after that we could see this go back and forth through the rest of the primaries, particularly in Ohio on March 17,” Sutton said.
The Iowa process is unique and who a voter’s second choice is could end up playing a key role in the outcome.
“You have to get at least 15% in Iowa for your count at your location to then make it to the next round,” Sutton said. “Which means some get dropped and those caucus goers then have to pick somebody else so you walk in with not one choice but usually a second and a third.”
That, Sutton pointed out, can at times produce an unusual result as was the case in the 1976 Democratic Caucus when “uncommitted” got 37 percent of the vote ahead of the eventual nominee Jimmy Carter with 27.6%.
