Indiana voters could impact contested convention

Posted at 8:16 PM, May 02, 2016
and last updated 2016-05-02 20:16:10-04

Hopes of a contested Republican National Convention could take a hit Tuesday as Republican voters head to the polls in Indiana.

“Unless there's a big surprise coming out of Indiana tomorrow Trump really is going to continue to consolidate and look like he's going to be the nominee," said WEWS Political Analyst Tom Sutton of Baldwin Wallace University.

Those polls show Trump leading Cruz by double digits.

“I think what’s really happening is a coalescing that we typically see when you get to this point in a primary season,” said Sutton.

The stop Trump movement had Indiana circled on their calendar as the place where someone other than Trump could win, in this case Sen. Ted Cruz. It’s one of the reasons Gov. John Kasich stepped aside in the state and stopped campaigning, clearing the path for Cruz but that hasn’t worked.

Indiana has 57 delegates, 30 will be awarded to the winner of the state with the remaining 27 to be awarded to the winner of the individual congressional districts in the state. If Trump picks the state wide allotment and 2/3’s of the congressional district amount he’d end up with 48 delegates. That would be enough to lower his magic percentage of delegates needed to reach 1237 before the convention from 48 to 43 percent.

While this would close the door further on Kasich and Cruz’s presidential hopes, Sutton doesn’t see Kasich for one leaving until it’s mathematically impossible.

 "Because he's continued to be talked about as an alternative, he keeps pointing to the polls of what he would do against Hillary Clinton as the Democrat come November, those are the kinds of things that keep him in and unless he's completely out of money he has no reason not to be in it," Sutton said.

"So Kasich stays in for as long as he can, tries to limp into the convention and hopes that something does occur at that convention that leads to it being contested and gives him a chance to possibly come out of that as more than just somebody who came in in third place."

Kasich launched a new radio ad buy in Oregon but as of late Monday he had no upcoming campaign stops on his public schedule.