The following article was originally published in the Ohio Capital Journal and published on News5Cleveland.com under a content-sharing agreement.
Ohio is part of a downward trend in birth rates that has occurred in nearly every state in the country, and the financial impacts of fewer new humans could start impacting the state’s fiscal health as early as next year.
The Buckeye State trended at the lower end of fertility rates in 2023, with 56.4 births per 1,000 women, despite being in an area with the “greatest regional median general fertility rate” in the country, according to new research by the Pew Research Center.
The 2023 rate showed a drop in general fertility for every single state, with Ohio seeing an 8.9% decrease from the state’s average of 61.9 births per 1,000 between 2011 and 2020.
The birth rate for Ohio was slightly higher than the national average of 54.5 births per 1,000 women.
Of the births that happened in Ohio, the greatest percentage occurred for women aged 30 to 34, with pregnancies in 25 to 29-year-olds coming in a close second. The state saw 14.1% of births happening in women aged 35 to 39 in 2023.
Births to mothers younger than 20 and ages 20 to 24 both fell drastically in Ohio compared to 2007 numbers.
Births to mothers aged 20 or younger represented 11% of all Ohio births in 2007, but in 2023, that number was 4.4%.
In 2007, 26.5% of births in the state were to 20 to 24-year-old mothers, but the rate fell to 19.2% in 2023.
The trending age groups fall in line with the national average, where 30.5% of births were to 30 to 34-year-old women, and 27.4% were in the 25 to 29-year-old range.
The national general fertility rate had the largest annual decrease in 30 years as of 2020, and the downward trend continued into 2023.
Even taken individually, most states in the country and Washington, D.C., have the lowest general fertility rates in more than 30 years, according to the data from Pew.
“Historically, fertility rates have dipped during economic downturns but tended to recover as conditions improved,” researchers said in the report.
But after the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, fertility rates “fell and never bounced back.”
The COVID-19 pandemic didn’t help, but 2021 saw a slight increase, “which probably reflected births from pregnancies that women decided to delay during the early pandemic months,” the report stated.
That increase only lasted a short time before the fertility rate decrease “quickly resumed its long-running downward trajectory.”
The birth rate drop is significant enough that conservatives, including Vice President JD Vance and others in the Trump administration, have debated incentivizing birth, though American women are still hesitant.
The Pew report said women are generally having fewer children than previous generations, and the reasons range from financial concerns like student loan debt, housing costs, and the cost of child care, to the desire for higher education levels or career success.
The Midwest and South recorded the highest fertility rates in 2023, holding 20 of the 25 states where rates were higher than the national general fertility rate.
The West has had a “pronounced shift,” however, falling from the top region for fertility rates in the 2000s to the second-lowest in 2023.
Population growth in the West is now coming from “an influx of people from other states and abroad rather than an increase in births,” according to the report.
Preliminary data for 2024 shows a slight uptick in the national fertility rate of 0.2% from the previous year, but the impacts of the negative trends have already shown up in state economics, according to researchers.
“Many of the short-term fiscal effects may prove positive for states, but over time, these smaller birth cohorts may create broader challenges,” the report stated.
More immediately, less children means cost savings in areas like health care and education, according to the center’s research, with a reduction in teen pregnancies saving taxpayers billions when it comes to spending by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on safety net programs for young mothers, including Medicaid.
But the long-term effects could mean increased pressures on state coffers, with the first of the smaller birth-rate groups reaching adulthood in 2026, meaning a smaller group of working-age adults “that may eventually shrink tax bases and limit revenue growth.”
“State policymakers must reckon with the question of how best to navigate lower fertility rates and related fiscal impacts,” Pew found in the report.
