The following article was originally published in the Ohio Capital Journal and published on News5Cleveland.com under a content-sharing agreement.
In a week, Ohio voters will cast their ballots in the state’s presidential primary. Outside a catastrophic event, though, there’s no doubt which candidates will represent their parties come November. Democrat Joe Biden doesn’t face a credible challenger and Republican Donald Trump will likely sew up the nomination this week.
For races down the ticket that could be a troubling prospect or a golden opportunity.
State of the race
The presidential contest drives turnout, and particularly for candidates aligned with Trump, drafting in the former president’s wake could help them secure victory. But if Trump has already won, will his supporter’s still show up? And if they don’t, does that create an opening for other candidates?
Ohio’s Republican U.S. Senate primary is a three-way race between three men with a legitimate shot at winning. Two vied for Trump’s endorsement. Entrepreneur and political newcomer Bernie Moreno got the nod that proved to be a difference-maker for J.D. Vance in 2022. Secretary of State Frank LaRose did not, but he’s the only candidate with a track record of running and winning statewide races.
State Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, is quite conservative, but he didn’t seek out Trump’s endorsement. As a policymaker Dolan argues he has done more than either of his rivals to actually enact Trump’s agenda. And by avoiding his opponents’ obsequious posture, Dolan may appeal to Republicans who are wary of a Trump rerun. Dolan has also opened a spigot of cash. Moreno has put more than $4 million of his own money into the race — Dolan has invested more than double that.
The viability of each candidate’s path shows up the polling. There haven’t been many, but public surveys show big shares of undecided voters. Despite Trump’s endorsement, Moreno has not been able to pull away from the pack.
The race’s uncertainty is also apparent in a handful of last-minute moves. Former U.S. Sen. Rob Portman and Gov. Mike DeWine both threw their support behind Dolan. DeWine previously declined to weigh in on the primary contest. Donald Trump is also attempting to put his stamp on the race with a campaign rally in Dayton this weekend.
Welcoming the visit, Moreno touted the support of “America-first, conservative warriors” including Trump, Vance, and Ohio Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan.
“My opponent, Matt Dolan, is backed by leaders of the America-Last establishment wing of the GOP like Mike DeWine and Rob Portman,” Moreno said, “The contrast in this primary could not be clearer and I’m confident Ohioans are ready to send President Trump a true ally to the US Senate.”
Presidential impact
Still, of the Republican candidates seeking the U.S. Senate nomination, Moreno appears to face the greatest threat if primary turnout is low.
“I think it could potentially hurt Bernie Moreno,” University of Akron political scientist David Cohen explained, “because I think a drop in enthusiasm, a drop in turnout, benefits the other two candidates.”
“Obviously, we have to wait until the dust settles, but I think there is merit to that argument,” he added.
Ohio Capital Journal reached out to Moreno’s campaign for comment, but they did not respond.
Cohen also emphasized a sharp distinction in the candidates’ electoral experience. Central to Moreno’s pitch is that he’s an outsider rather than a career politician. But in a tight race Cohen argued, turning out voters — experience LaRose and Dolan have in spades — will be critical.
“But I think all things being equal,” Cohen said, “Bernie Moreno has an advantage, because he does he does have the Trump endorsement, and the Republican Party is Trump’s party at this point.”
As for the persistent chunk of undecided voters, Cohen said part of the problem is that all three candidates are a credible choice. University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven offered another explanation.
“It was a relatively short time horizon,” he explained.
“When you think about it,” he said, “reproductive rights, took up all the energy heading into November, then you can’t really accomplish very much in December. So, we’re talking about, in substance, a two-and-a-half month race amongst three candidates who agree on almost everything.”
Ohio pushes its primary to March in presidential years, but during other even-year elections the primaries are in May — giving candidates more time to draw distinctions. Niven argued that a muddy Senate race and no contest at all in the presidential primary is a recipe for low enthusiasm.
“I think it matters for the sort of peripheral voter that Trump’s political career has depended upon,” he said. “That peripheral voter who comes out for him — doesn’t much care about politics in general, doesn’t much care for politics in general — comes out for him and would, presumably, have absolutely no reason to vote for Dolan or LaRose, and would therefore, by default be with Trump’s man.”
Niven hastened to add that “doesn’t mean (Moreno) is going to lose, but that he would have been better off if not just Nikki Haley, but the whole crew had stayed in.”
Within Republican circles, too, there’s some acknowledgement that certainty for the presidential race is clouding the U.S. Senate primary.
“Absolutely, that’s a valid question,” one longtime GOP operative allowed. “I don’t think we’re necessarily going to know until we know, but if you look at some of the other indicators, yeah, I think it could have somewhat of an impact.”
Regardless, they like Niven and Cohen, gave Moreno the edge heading into the primary.
“I just think that Bernie probably has enough to get over the finish line,” they said, “But I don’t think it’s going to be anywhere close to a double-digit win.”
And they argued at this point it’s easier to identify Trump-aligned voters. So even if Dolan and LaRose have more experience with get-out-the-vote efforts, they might be drawing from a shallower pool.
Watch News 5's John Kosich report from the Cuyahoga County Board of Education on the first day of early voting in the player below.
