Move aside, lake effect snow... Florida could see its version of snowflakes, with rare Gulf-effect snow. How is this possible, and how realistic is it for Floridians to see snow this weekend?
Watch meteorologists Allan Nosoff and Ally Blake from our sister station, Tampa Bay 28, discuss more:
The meteorological processes required to produce lake-effect snow are the same for Gulf-effect snow, with the same three core ingredients.
- A large body of water. The Gulf is much bigger than Lake Erie, so size is not a problem at all.
- A big temperature difference between the water and the air. Water temperatures are near 60 degrees. Air temperatures are forecast to approach the freezing mark overnight, if not even drop into the upper 20s inland. A bonus: cloud temperatures in the sky will be as low as 10 degrees, which will help any snowflakes survive the trip to the ground.
- The right wind speed and direction. In the case of Gulf effect snow, the only wind direction that would support cold-enough air and precipitation is a northwest (NW) wind. That will be in place. Gusts will be over 30 miles per hour, which should be enough to spark a few Gulf effect snow showers.
Saturday night's cold across Florida is the coldest since 2010 in most major cities, including Orlando, Miami, and, of course, Tampa. So it is probable that a few Gulf-effect showers form later Saturday evening and into the overnight.
Will they last long enough so temperatures drop to freezing and snowflakes reach the ground? Time will tell. This phenomenon is rare. Tampa itself has only seen measurable snow twice in recorded history, in 1977 and 1899.
This snow likely will not be heavy enough to accumulate, but a trace is possible. There has not even been a trace of snow recorded since 1977. In 2010, areas outside of Tampa had sleet showers and only very isolated flurries.
If you happen to spend this weekend in the Tampa Bay area or have family there, let them know about this rare chance!
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