Current patterns suggest a cooler October

Posted at 12:23 AM, Sep 17, 2015
and last updated 2015-09-17 00:23:08-04

So far, September has a been warmer than normal. But does that translate to a warm October?

Not necessarily.

In reviewing current ocean patterns of warm and cold around the globe and comparing them to past years with similar patterns, we get a little better picture of how October 2015 will pan out temperature-wise here in Northern Ohio.

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To do this, I look for years with similar ocean-atmospheric "teleconnections:" i.e. warmer than average waters along the U.S. West Coast, a strong El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific, plus a cool pool of water in the North Atlantic.

The year that matches closest is 1957.

There was a strong El Nino developing that year along with a warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Just like what we are seeing this year. 

Here's what the temperatures look like back in October of 1957.

Note: Below, the BLUE colors equal temperatures BELOW AVERAGE all across Ohio.

Precipitation averaged BELOW average as well for Northern Ohio back in October of 1957.

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Note: Orange colors below indicate fewer raindrops than normal that year.

So, best get the coats ready for Halloween.... Of course, Mother Nature can change her mind at the last minute.

So, stay tuned!


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