It may be hard to believe, but severe storms are a growing possibility this weekend, even though it's just the start of March.
A powerful cold front is expected to move through the area on Saturday, bringing an increased chance of damaging gusts, flooding downpours, and even some small hail.
The timing of these storms is critical to their severity and to which areas could see the greatest impacts. The earlier in the day the front crosses through, the less energy the storms will have, thus limiting the extent of severe storms. The highest chance for severe storms would then be farther to the east, closer to the Pennsylvania state line, and beyond. Areas on the west side could escape severe weather, seeing only a downpour or two, under this scenario.
However, the trend for most of this winter, with cold fronts, has been to delay the arrival of rain, which, in this case, would significantly raise the severe threat.
If the front arrives later in the afternoon or evening, that would allow for a LOT more fuel for the storms to feed on. That includes more sun and warmer temperatures. If the front holds off until later, more of the area will hold on to partly or mostly sunny skies and temperatures soaring into the 70s, and challenging records for the day. That would allow the storms to grow stronger and potentially produce severe weather for the majority of the News 5 viewing area.
As of the latest update from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, the eastern half of the viewing area is under a tier two out of five risk for seeing severe storms, which means they are expecting a few scattered severe storms in the yellow-shaded area on Saturday. The threat is lower, but not zero, to the west. A tier one risk means isolated severe storms are still expected, but the earlier timing could limit their intensity earlier in the day, with them moving off to the west.
What is the big takeaway? Plan on impacts and/or interruptions to Saturday plans, especially if they are outdoors. A line of storms is very likely at some point during the day. The timing is still unclear at this point, ranging from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. As it is only Thursday as of this article update, and there is still plenty of time to watch, it is important to check back here for critical timing updates that will play a big role in how strong Saturday's storms get.
Want the latest Power of 5 weather team updates wherever you go? Download the News 5 App free now: Apple|Android
Click here to view our interactive radar.
Follow the News 5 Weather Team:
Trent Magill: Facebook & Twitter
Katie McGraw: Facebook & Twitter
Phil Sakal: Facebook & Twitter
Allan Nosoff: Facebook & Twitter
