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Latest University of Washington model still shows Ohio has enough hospital beds for COVID-19 peak

University of Washington model
Posted at 3:01 PM, Apr 02, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-02 15:20:58-04

SEATTLE, WA — New projections from the latest model of COVID-19 projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington Medicine continue to show Ohio hospitals and intensive care units have the capacity for the pending surge in coronavirus cases.

The model from IHME, an independent health population research center, shows Ohio’s coronavirus cases are expected to peak April 19, according to the latest IHME model released Thursday morning.

At that time, the forecast predicts Ohio will experience 69 deaths per day from coronavirus with 1,898 deaths by August 4, 2020.

Peak date resources

In a section forecasting resources needed on the peak date, the IHME model shows Ohio would need 6,716 hospital beds, 1,009 ICU beds and 807 ventilators.

The IHME model forecasts Ohio is more than prepared to handle the demand, with the state expected to have 14,290 hospital beds and 1,238 ICU beds available for patients on that date.

There is no information about the total number of ventilators available on the peak date.

Earlier this week, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton issued an order requiring healthcare providers and manufacturers to provide ODH with information about their supplies so the state can begin tracking the total number of ventilators available in the state.

Preparing for the peak

During daily briefings, Dr. Acton and Gov. Mike DeWine have referenced models from Ohio State University and the Cleveland Clinic that have more dire predictions regarding the expected peak number of cases in the state.

Last week, they have said Ohio could see as many as 10,000 new coronavirus cases per day during the peak.

They also have repeatedly discussed the need for Ohio to build hospital capacity from two to three times what is currently available.

For example, in anticipation of the surge, the Cleveland Clinic is working to temporarily convert its Samson Pavilion at the Health Education Campus into a functioning hospital.

Projected U.S. deaths

In a news release issued Thursday, IHME said predictions of the peak in daily COVID-19 death has increased since they first released projection one week ago.

Today’s release estimates 93,531 deaths in the U.S. during the “first wave” of the pandemic.

On March 26, the model forecasted 81,114 deaths.

The model's current estimates show COVID-19 deaths are predicted to peak April 16, when it predicts 2,622 deaths in a single day in the U.S.

The release states the model’s estimates presume the continuation of current social distancing policies. It also states the U.S. could experience a higher hospital burden and death toll if those policies are relaxed.

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused a novel coronavirus. Symptoms can appear within two to 14 days of exposure and include fever, cough and difficulty breathing.

View the IMHE COVID-19 projection data beow - select "Ohio" to see state-level projections.

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