The headlines are everywhere on social media. "Super El Niño" is coming. While that is true, many are left wondering what it actually is, and how it will impact OUR weather locally across Northeast Ohio for the rest of this summer, fall, and especially into winter.
El Niño is a phenomenon when the surface water temperatures (SST) are warmer than average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, west of South America. The opposite, when the temperatures are below average, is known as La Niña. That narrow ribbon of water across the equator is essentially the kickstarter to worldwide weather patterns, including across the United States. How warm or cold, as well as how much precipitation our area gets, depends on how strong the El Niño or La Niña is.
I asked you on Facebook earlier in the week about any El Niño questions you had, and nearly half of them were about the potential impact on our winter weather. Summer is not even halfway over, yet many are already curious about how snowy or cold this winter could be.
I spent several hours crunching the data. While history never repeats itself, it can often imitate.
No two seasons are ever the same, but by combining similar past situations, we can get a clearer idea of which weather patterns are most likely to emerge.
The last two "Super El Niño" events in 1997-98 and 2015-16 are close parallels to what is occurring in 2026: a rapidly intensifying El Niño after a "neutral" winter. Neutral means average water temperatures, instead of above or below normal. Other recent similar patterns are 2002, 2009, and 2023.
The impacts on our weather in Northeast Ohio change from now through winter. The impacts need to be broken down into summer plus fall, then winter.
The data tells the story well. Without further ado, this is what history tells us:
Between now (mid-July) and the end of meteorological fall (November), temperatures are expected to be colder than average, and precipitation is expected to be much below average.
That is not good for a potential drought this upcoming fall.
The precipitation anomaly is expected to persist into this upcoming winter, with drier-than-normal weather based on the data.
The drought is the biggest concern with a Super El Niño forming, based on historical data.
The period from 2002 to 2003 is an example of an extreme drought across parts of Ohio.
The temperatures change between now and winter.
Much above-average temperatures are favored to dominate this upcoming winter based on historical data.
Can the historical data be trusted?
It is ultimately a *tool* used to help formulate long-range seasonal forecasts. It is not gospel, and within the historical data, there have been individual seasons with opposite results, including a snowier winter.
What also complicates this is the potential record-setting El Niño.
This is now forecast to become the STRONGEST El Niño ever recorded, and there is simply no data for what happens when the El Niño is that intense.
This is NOT our official Power of 5 forecast. This is simply what history tells us based on similar previous experiences. Again, no two seasons are ever the same, but it gives us a starting base for forecasting. When we get closer to the fall, the team will release a winter forecast, which was just TWO INCHES away from nailing Cleveland's snowfall last winter.
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