Actions

El Niño Watch Issued: What does this mean for NE Ohio?

After a few years with La Niña, patterns are shifting now. An El Niño Watch has been issued, but what does this mean for NE Ohio?

By: Katie McGraw

Posted at 10:22 AM, Apr 14, 2023

and last updated 2023-04-14 14:23:03-04

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch. An El Niño watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. NOAA says there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Niña.

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December.

El Niño is also the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. It is defined by warmer ocean temperatures and precipitation is greater than normal in the area spanning the central to eastern Pacific Ocean. It can influence weather and climate patterns across the U.S. and around the world.

IMPACTS FROM EL NIÑO?
Most El Niños hit their peak in late fall or winter, and thus have their strongest influence on weather patterns in the colder months of the year. El Niño can affect the weather across the U.S. significantly, but impacts depend on the strength of each El Niño. Weak El Niño years do not have as much of an impact on our weather as strong years.

El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are drier and warmer than usual. However, in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding. Northeast Ohio typically sees drier and slightly warmer temperatures than normal conditions during El Niño.

NOAA will continue to monitor the potential development of El Niño and will issue the next monthly update on May 11, 2023.