Just two days into meteorological winter, several winter storms and lake-effect events have already brought significant snow to The Land. How much snow? Nearly 10 inches as of Dec. 2.
To put this into perspective, there have been just 16 winters in the last 86 years of record-keeping that had more snow at this point in the season. That puts this winter in the top 20% of snowfall so far to date.
What is the average? 5.1 inches. So, Cleveland is already more than four inches ahead at this very early stage of winter.
What happened for the rest of the winter in those other 16 winters? Wildly different endings. Only 10 of the 16 winters ended with above-average snowfall. The other six ended with below-average snowfall.
At first glance, there is little correlation between the amount of snow Cleveland sees early in the season and the total amount of snow throughout the entire winter. Is there any correlation to suggest something different?
Going back to our Power of 5 winter outlook, which called for the most snow since 2020-21, there were several 'analogs' our team compiled.
Analogs are previous years with oceanic and atmospheric conditions that closely resemble current conditions. For the science geeks out there, these items include a weak La Niña (or La Nada), a negative (east-based) QBO, a negative NAO, and more.
Among the 16 winters that started even snowier than this year, three had significant similarities: 1995-96, 2008-09, and, of course, 2020-21.
The 2020-21 winter season ended with 52 inches of snow, about a dozen inches below average. The other two? Above-average snowfall, including the notorious winter of 1995-96, which produced over 100 inches for the season.
There were also a couple of winters with above-average snow (more than 5.1 inches), but just below the current tally of 9.3 inches, that had significant similarities to this upcoming winter. Those were: 1964-95, 1967-68, and 1981-82.
The latter winter also produced over 100 inches of snow in Cleveland, but the other two winters produced below-average snowfall. 1967-68 had some of the most similarities with this winter, and that winter ended with just 43 inches of snow in Cleveland, over 20 inches below average.
TL:DR — Looking back at the years that had above-average snowfall through the start of December, three winters ended with above-average snowfall, and three winters ended with below-average snowfall. That does not seem very helpful. So, how will the rest of this winter be?
These big "boom or bust" snow totals between these different winters essentially come down to a January wild card that Trent discussed in our Power of 5 winter outlook.
RELATED: Your official power of 5 winter weather outlook: Aggressive start while living on the edge late
If all the ingredients can line up, like a cold blast with a favorable storm track, then this winter could be the first above-average snowfall season since 2014-15, which was over a decade ago.
Otherwise, it will likely be the snowiest winter in five years, yet remain below average for total snowfall. Our Power of 5 winter forecast called for 53" here, but more in the snowbelt with a favorable lake-effect pattern early on.
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