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Summer is not over yet, what conditions to expect this August

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Posted at 11:20 AM, Jul 31, 2022
and last updated 2022-07-31 11:21:40-04

CLEVELAND — This year is flying by quickly! August starts on Monday and there are only 153 days left in the year! Fall begins in about eight weeks on September 22, so summer is not over yet! Plus, HOT temperatures will be likely over the next few weeks!

What should we expect this August?

Mid-range data suggests that above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation will be a theme for at least the next two weeks. For perspective, average high temperatures in early August are in the low to mid-80s. The month ends with an average high temperatures around 80 degrees.

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When we look at the next six-10 days, the Climate Prediction Center has a notable signal for above average temperatures. From August 5-9, there is roughly a 70-80% chance for above average temps. A similar pattern continues for the next eight-14 days. From August 7-13, there is also a 50-60% chance for above-normal temperatures to continue. During the same window, precipitation chances are slightly lower than what is typical as well. For perspective, the average rainfall amount in August is 3.56 inches. July was wetter than normal, but we will have to keep an eye on the drought monitor over the next few weeks. Scroll through the images from the Climate Prediction Center below...

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This trend does not suggest that there will be ZERO cooler days (for example next Tuesday looks to be in the upper 70s), but the bulk average appears to fall above average until at least August 13.

For what it is worth, it appears the pattern could flip by the middle of the month. The Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS) extended analog guidance shows high confidence that 12-14 days out will be near normal or even colder than normal!

Keep in mind, that monthly forecasts are notoriously hard to predict. I am hoping to discuss general warming/cooling trends over the next few weeks. It is still best to tune into News 5 to check the exact numbers and conditions daily!

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