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2023 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook issued; hurricane season starts on June 1

NOAA forecasters issued their hurricane forecast for 2023 on Thursday. The season begins in one week on June 1 and continues until Nov. 30.

By: Katie McGraw

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Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued their Atlantic hurricane forecast for 2023 on Thursday. The season begins in one week on June 1 and continues until Nov. 30.

Forecasters are predicting a near-normal season for hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year, saying there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA has a 70% confidence there will be a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).

According to the NOAA, the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than in recent years. Additionally, it appears there will be competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year's overall forecast for a near-normal season.

After three hurricane seasons with La Niña present, El Niño is expected to develop this summer, and El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. However, there are also some favorable conditions, including the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which can produce some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development.

Keep in mind this forecast is for overall seasonal activity and not only for storms that make landfall. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season, which is typically at the end of August and early September.

Below is a list of the Atlantic names you may hear over the next six months. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is a list used every six years. The last time this list was used was in 2017, but four names have been replaced - Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate. Those names were retired after the 2017 hurricane season. Retirements happen if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues), the offending name is stricken from the list, and another name is selected to replace it.